Record cereal production to boost global supplies in 2016/17


Confirming prospects of a record harvest, FAO’s estimate of world cereal production in 2016 has been lifted further to 2 592 million tonnes, up 15 million tonnes (0.6 percent) from December. This month’s revision mostly reflects larger-than-expected wheat harvests in Australia and the Russian Federation, combined with upward adjustments to world maize production, almost entirely due to an increase in China’s estimate. These increases more than offset a reduction in the forecast of world rice production, as a result of lower reported outturns in China, Pakistan, the United States and Viet Nam. arly production prospects for the 2017 cereal crops are mixed. Planting of the winter wheat crop in the Northern Hemisphere is virtually complete. In the United States, large supplies and relatively low prices induced farmers to cut down winter wheat seedings to their second-lowest level on record, while less than ideal weather may constrain yields somewhat. Canada’s winter wheat area is similarly down, mostly on reduced price prospects. In Europe, beneficial weather promoted the establishment of the EU’s winter crop, although cold temperature in January may have caused some damage. Overall area in the EU is anticipated to stay unchanged from last year.

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