Reports

Renewable ethanol is expected to play an important role in the realisation of the EU’s energy and climate ambitions to 2030. One of the main factors limiting the potential contribution of renewable ethanol to decarbonisation of the road vehicle fleet is the level at which ethanol is blended into gasoline. One option to overcome this is through the standardisation and use of mid-level ethanol blends in gasoline, such as an E20 grade which could use ethanol (up to 20% in volume) and/or other oxygenates (such as ETBE). Work ongoing over the last five years has shown that higher blends are a valid option for ethanol blending in gasoline. In this study, E4tech investigates the potential demand for ethanol in 2030 if E20 were used across the gasoline pool in two scenarios, and how this might be supplied.

The new study, “Europe’s Clean Mobility Outlook: Scenarios for the EU light-duty vehicle fleet, associated energy needs and emissions, 2020-2050”, was carried out by independent consultancy firm Ricardo Energy & Environment. It found that use of low-carbon fuels like renewable EU ethanol could provide additional GHG reductions that would otherwise not be achieved and could also mitigate for potential uncertainty in longer-term GHG intensity of electricity. The report examined three possible scenarios for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe. Even under the most ambitious scenario, EVs would make up 15.7% of the EU passenger car fleet and 40% of new passenger car sales in 2030. Importantly, the study also looked at the related direct and Well-To-Wheels GHG emissions of these different scenarios depending on the amount of low-carbon fuels in the energy mix.